SK Hynix surpasses Samsung: AI memory era reshapes Korea's semiconductor landscape

Event Overview

On June 22, 2026, SK Hynix (000660.KS) shares rose by 5.7%, bringing its market capitalization to 2,082.5 trillion won (approximately 1.35 trillion USD), surpassing Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) at 2,081.3 trillion won (excluding preferred shares) for the first time to become the most valuable listed company in South Korea. This marks the first time since 2000 that Samsung Electronics has lost the top spot in South Korea's market cap, signifying a profound transformation in the global semiconductor industry driven by AI demand.

Background: From Near Bankruptcy to AI Darling

The rise of SK Hynix is one of the biggest turnarounds in South Korea's corporate history. In 2002, the then-named Hynix Semiconductor was burdened with massive debt due to aggressive expansion, nearly being sold to Micron, and spent nearly a decade under creditor control. In 2003, its stock price once fell to 135 won, being regarded as a "junk stock." Since then, the company's fortunes fluctuated with the cyclical nature of the memory industry, and in 2023, it reported an annual operating loss of 7.73 trillion won due to industry downturn.

However, with the acceleration of the AI wave in 2024, giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta heavily invested in AI infrastructure. SK Hynix achieved an explosive performance by leveraging its first-mover advantage in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), posting a record operating profit of 23.5 trillion won in 2024. In 2025, SK Hynix captured a 61% share of the global HBM market, far ahead of Samsung's 17% and Micron's 21%.

In-Depth Analysis

Technology Impact: How HBM is Changing the Memory Technology Roadmap

HBM is a specialized memory that achieves higher bandwidth and lower power consumption by vertically stacking DRAM chips. Unlike traditional DDR or GDDR memory, HBM is tightly integrated with AI processors (such as NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs), forming an irreplaceable co-design. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won noted in a book: "In the past, memory from Hynix, Samsung, or Micron was interchangeable commodities. HBM is different—if you replace SK Hynix's HBM, the AI system may not function properly."

This characteristic significantly raises technical barriers: HBM requires advanced TSV (Through Silicon Via) and micro-bump packaging technologies, along with rigorous chip-package co-design. SK Hynix began investing in HBM R&D as early as the 2010s and never stopped even during industry downturns, allowing it to build a deep technological moat.

Supply Chain Impact: Beneficiaries and Risk Parties in the Industry Chain

Upstream Equipment and Materials: The manufacturing of HBM relies on more advanced DRAM processes (1α, 1β, etc.) and advanced packaging equipment.Upstream Equipment and Materials: HBM manufacturing relies on more advanced DRAM processes (1α, 1β, etc.) and advanced packaging equipment. SK Hynix's expansion plans will drive demand for ASML lithography machines, Applied Materials deposition equipment, Lam Research etching equipment, and packaging equipment suppliers (such as Disco and Tokyo Electron). At the same time, HBM consumes larger amounts of high-purity silicon wafers, photoresists, and specialty chemicals (such as TSV plating solutions), benefiting material suppliers.

Midstream Manufacturing: SK Hynix plans to expand DRAM output by approximately 38% from 2025 to 2028, while Samsung will only expand by 17.5%. This means SK Hynix is narrowing the capacity gap with Samsung, and the gap is expected to decrease from 23% to within 10% by 2028. This will have a profound impact on the global DRAM supply landscape: if SK Hynix continues to lead in HBM, its overall profitability and market share will further increase.

Downstream Packaging and Testing: HBM requires advanced 2.5D/3D packaging (such as CoWoS, InFO), resulting in orders for packaging companies like ASE and Amkor. SK Hynix itself is also expanding packaging capacity, such as investing in an advanced packaging line in Cheongju, South Korea.

The Risky Side: Samsung Electronics faces dual pressure—not only lagging in the HBM market, but also seeing its traditional DRAM advantages potentially eroded. In addition, although Micron has a 21% share in HBM, it is smaller and lacks SK Hynix's first-mover advantage.

Competitive Landscape: Reshaping the Competitive Landscape

SK Hynix has become the highest market-cap company in South Korea, marking a shift in the memory industry from "commoditization" to "customization." In the past, competition in DRAM and NAND Flash mainly revolved around cost, capacity, and process technology, with highly homogeneous products. The rise of HBM has broken this model: AI chips require deep customization with memory, creating a new dimension of differentiated competition.

Market Share Changes: According to Bank of America's forecast, SK Hynix's monthly DRAM wafer output will increase from approximately 589,000 wafers in 2025 to approximately 813,000 wafers in 2028, while Samsung's will only increase from approximately 691,000 to 812,000, nearly equal. This will threaten Samsung's long-standing cost leadership achieved through scale advantages.

Company Valuation: SK Hynix's P/E ratio is significantly higher than Samsung's, reflecting the market's high expectations for its AI-driven growth. Its plan to list on Nasdaq will further attract global investors, potentially sustaining the valuation premium.

Regional Implications: Rebalancing of South Korea's Semiconductor IndustrySouth Korea: SK Hynix surpassing Samsung means that the Korean semiconductor industry is no longer dominated solely by Samsung, but has formed a dual-leader pattern. This presents both opportunities and challenges for the Korean government—it needs to support the competition between the two companies while ensuring a stable position in the global supply chain.

United States: SK Hynix has become a key supplier for NVIDIA and Google. Its U.S. listing (choosing NASDAQ) will further integrate it into the U.S. AI ecosystem. The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act may attract SK Hynix to set up more HBM packaging capacity in the U.S. to reduce supply chain risks.

China: Chinese AI chip companies (such as Huawei and Cambricon) are also developing HBM alternatives, but in the short term they cannot break through SK Hynix's patents and technical barriers. U.S. export controls on China may restrict SK Hynix's supply of HBM to China, affecting its revenue structure.

Japan and Europe: Japan benefits from HBM equipment and materials (such as Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical); Europe indirectly boosts HBM demand due to increased AI infrastructure investment.

Investment Perspective: Long-Term Value in Capital Markets

Why does the capital market give SK Hynix such a high valuation? The core lies in the pricing power brought by HBM's "customization" attribute. Traditional DRAM gross margins fluctuate sharply, while HBM, due to its deep integration with AI chips, has extremely high customer stickiness and relatively stable prices. In addition, AI infrastructure investment is still in its early stages, and the compound annual growth rate of HBM demand is expected to remain above 30% in the next 3-5 years.

Long-term value drivers: 1. Continuous iteration of HBM3e and the next-generation HBM4, where technology leaders can maintain high market share. 2. SK Hynix is also actively laying out in new directions such as CXL (Compute Express Link) memory. 3. After the U.S. listing, financing convenience improves, which can be used for M&A or capacity expansion.

Long-Term Outlook: Industry Changes in the Next 5-10 Years

2027-2028: SK Hynix and Samsung are almost on par in total DRAM production capacity, but SK Hynix has a higher share in the HBM field, which may drive its overall profit to surpass Samsung.

2029-2030: HBM may evolve from 2.5D to 3D stacking, and SK Hynix's accumulation of TSV technology becomes a key barrier. At the same time, AI inference chips place higher demands on HBM capacity and bandwidth, promoting further integration of storage and computing.

After 2030: New types of memory (such as MRAM, FeRAM) may emerge as competitors, but in the short term, HBM remains the mainstream solution for AI systems. If the Korean semiconductor industry maintains dual-leader competition, it will continue to dominate the global memory market.

Industry JudgmentSK Hynix's market cap surpassing Samsung is not only a victory at the corporate level, but also a landmark event of paradigm shift in the semiconductor industry in the AI era: - Storage chips have transformed from 'commodities' to 'strategic components', with customization and collaborative design becoming the core of competition. - The importance of technology investment cycles is highlighted: Persisting in R&D during industry downturns is the key to seizing the initiative in the next growth phase. - A duopoly of Korean semiconductor giants has formed, but if Samsung does not accelerate its catch-up in HBM, it may be marginalized in the AI memory era. - Impact on global supply chains: HBM manufacturing is highly concentrated (mainly Korea and the US), and geopolitical risks cannot be ignored.

In summary, SK Hynix's rise is a microcosm of the deep restructuring of the AI-driven semiconductor industry. In the next five years, the memory industry may shift from an 'oligopoly balance' to 'leadership turnover', and the competition in HBM will determine the global semiconductor landscape.